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IMF economist speculates about a rush to dump the dollar
By Christian Oliver
Reuters
Monday, January 23, 2006
http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?
type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nL23170008&imageid=&cap=
TEHRAN -- Iran's central bank has not implemented any measures in
preparation for U.N. action over its atomic program because it does
not believe sanctions will be imposed, the bank said Monday.
"We do have a contingency plan. We are prepared for any eventuality
but at the moment we do not feel sanctions are going to take place,"
Deputy Governor Mohammad Jafar Mojarrad told Reuters in an
interview.
"We are not repatriating our foreign exchange assets ... and there
has been no movement of any assets from, for example, any European
banks to any Asian banks," he added.
He said talk of such transfers had resulted from misquotes in the
Iranian media and also denied suggestions from gold traders that
Iran's central bank was buying up the precious metal.
"We have no intention of buying gold at the high price at the
moment ... we are not in the market for the time being and are not
going to be in the market," he said.
Less than 10 percent of Iran's assets are thought to be in gold.
Iran faces referral to the U.N. Security Council for possible
sanctions after failing to convince the world its atomic program is
peaceful. It has bitter memories of its U.S. assets being frozen
after the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Central Bank Governor Ebrahim Sheibani said last week that Iran
could repatriate funds if that proved necessary, sparking fears the
Islamic Republic could be about to bring its cash home and buy in
gold stocks.
Analysts said it was unclear what Iran would gain by transferring
money to other foreign accounts, which would be equally subject to
U.N. measures.
Some, however, suggested that Iran could still be eying Swiss and
Gulf accounts as refuges.
Mojarrad also said in Monday's interview that Iran's economy could
grow by between 6.5 and 7 percent in the year to March 2007, and
reiterated the central bank's stance that the economy should grow by
about 6 percent in the 12 months to March 2006.
Both these figures represent a sharp recovery on the 4.8 percent
growth posted in the year to March 2005. Mojarrad said improvement
in the construction and agricultural sectors would help lift the
growth figures.
Liquidity growth would remain about 30 percent in the year to March
2007, making 13.5 percent inflation a realistic target.
He added that Iran's oil earnings could lift from about $42 billion
in the year to March 2006 to about $45-50 billion in the year to
March 2007 as long as Iranian crude continued to sell for about $50
a barrel.
He said the Oil Stabilisation Fund, Iran's rainy-day foreign
currency reserve, should hold $18 billion by March 2006. This
currency is held in the central bank's accounts abroad.
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