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Even an establishment academic questions motive behind M3 data erasure
By Peter Brimelow
CBSMaketWatch.com
Monday, November 28, 2005
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBB2887C0-1CD4-49B9-
A2A6-889A832F41CA%7D&siteid=mkwt
NEW YORK -- Monday night (Eastern), as soon as the Tokyo Commodities
Market opened, gold surged.
In just over an hour it was up $4 from the Comex close, breaking
through $500, and leveling off at $502.
Gold has not seen this level since mid-December 1987.
And that itself was a very brief peak, only one day on a closing
basis.
The last time the metal spent any time over $500 was late 1982/early
1983.
In an immediate sense, gold Bulls can thank the Japanese.
Gold futures in Tokyo started trading exceptionally heavily on
Thursday, and by the close on Monday, the number of gold contracts
outstanding had risen more than 11%.
The gold futures long held by the Japanese public is thought to be
at record levels.
And, because of the recent yen weakness, gold in yen has an even
more spectacular chart than U.S. gold.
What seems to have triggered this is hardening expectations of a
weaker yen.
Japanese opinion appears to have concluded that the Bank of Japan
does not dare raise rates, and that a recent yen-weakening capital
exodus will continue.
Japan has no foreign exchange futures contracts: Going long gold
futures has traditionally been the way Japanese speculators deal
with a sliding yen.
From time to time, this has been seen in the past.
But this time it has struck a gold market already on the move for
other reasons.
Middle East and Indian demand for physical gold has recently been
documented to be withstanding this year's higher prices far better
than many expected.
Exciting action in other metals, notably copper and platinum (which
rose over $1,000 for the first time in 25 years Monday) has
attracted Western traders.
Inflation rumors are about, as are unverified stories of central
banks intending to buy. Chartists of varying styles are becoming
entranced by the gold chart.
Particularly if they have really long-term ones.
If the active New York futures contract can close over $511, it will
break out of a trading range which has lasted since January 1983,
and enter levels last seen in the fabulous 1979-80 market.
It's about time.
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