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Princeton Economics Predicts April 8 into 9 CRASH

Section: Daily Dispatches

Hullo GATA members,

Some of you have been having difficulty getting to Princeton Economics
International (not Institute. The problem is in the 1 instead of l it
seems. Sorry about that. I normally paste addresses over, but it has
been difficult to maintain absolute order in the face of the overload on
the Internet lately, and the consequent time struggles. It often works
to use the search engine when one has difficulties like this. I find
Altavista to be better than Yahoo or msn.

Anyway, the right address is: pasted off the website

Boudewijn Wegerif (Bodwin)
Moderator GATA E-Mail Group.

>Go Gata wrote:
>> Dear GATA Member,
>> I strongly recommend you go to In
>> doing so, I am following the recommendation of Orlin Grebbe at
>> The website is that of Princeton Economic
>> Institute.
>> About a thousand words down you will read, under charts I cannot
>> reproduce here:
>> "Illustrated above, you will find the Dow Jones Industrials plotted
>> according to 8.6-month intervals beginning with June 4th, 1929 in
>> accordance with our Economic Confidence Model. The current high is
>> period beginning July 20th, 1998 and ending April 8th, 1999.
>> to our timing models the next major directional change should take
>> at this time. This trend, when analyzed in dollars exclusively, would
>> imply that the high has perhaps just been established as of March
>> 1999. A closing on April 8th BELOW 9,337.9 would technically confirm
>> such a possibility. Again, when viewed from a pure dollar
>> it would appear that a decline of six (6) subsequent 8.6-month timing
>> periods would fulfill an ideal cyclical perspective. This suggests
>> a high at this time should be followed by a decline into the
>> period beginning November 14th, 2002. . ."
>> Before dismissing the April 8 into 9 dateline for the coming major
>> reversal into year 2002, go back a few hundred words and read how
>> same Princeton Economic Institute, using the same models,
>> predicted the crash and the magnitude right down to the precise day
>> October 19th."
>> The analysis continues: "The question of whether we will see a major
>> crash of significant proportion that would take the Dow Jones back to
>> 3700 by 2002-2003 or a moderate correction of 6000-5000 will be
>> determined exclusively by the international reaction within net
>> flow movement. A strong dollar that continues to rise dramatically
>> 2002-2003 would not merely cause a similar recession in the U.S. such
>> that of 1980-1985, but it could very well impact commodity prices
>> thereby perpetuating the deflationary trend into 2002-2003
>> simultaneously."
>> There is no mention of gold in the several thousand word Princeton
>> analysis and forecast. So I have asked the authors about that, and
>> some of you will, too, through e-mailing them at
>> This is how I put it:
>> Dear friends,
>> I have just read The Next Crash Beware the Ides of March. I am very
>> impressed. Being on the Committee of the Gold Anti-Trust Action (see
>> and Moderator of the GATA E-mail Group
>> (, I was naturally interested to see that
>> word gold doesn't come up once. Of course, your focus is on the DOW.
>> Would you have kept records, nevertheless, on gold prices relative to
>> the DOW since 1929? and worked these into models? If so, the GATA
>> Committee and Members would very much like to know about it. We would
>> particuarly like to know if you have records that show what was
>> happening from October to December 1987?
>> GATA is a team of several hundred members now, who firmly believe
>> the Wall Street Investment Houses are colluding to suppress the price
>> gold, with the active encouragement of Treasury and Federal Reserve
>> Board officials? Would your records support that belief? And would
>> show a similar carry on in 1987?
>> Just this evening the GATA Chairman, Bill Murphy, wearing his other
>> as Midas at the financial website, which he
>> and edits, made some startling revelations about FED gold sales
>> December 1987. You might like to read the full text, at the James
>> Table, under the Cafe's trial membership offer, if one or other of
>> or the PEI as a whole is not a member yet.
>> Here is a tidbit, to entice you to the original perhaps.
>> Midas quotes from the unknown author of an article in a prominent
>> newspaper 11 years ago:
>> "WHO'S CALLING THE SHOTS? I recently had dinner with former Fed
>> Wayne Angell, and asked him several questions about gold. Of
>> interest to me was the disposal of 548,000 ounces from the Fed's
>> in the period immediately following the October 1987 stock market
>> "For those readers not familiar with the details, 190,000 ounces of
>> were sold from the US Gold Reserve during the 10 week period
>> following the crash, and a further 358,000 ounces were sold in
>> and February 1988. The size of this transaction and its eye-catching
>> timing have always in my mind warranted further inspection ( i.e.,
>> dishoarding occurred when everyone was nervous whether the financial
>> system was about to disintegrate because of the stock market crash
>> the big drop in the Dollar to new record lows; you will recall that
>> gold price was inching over $500 per ounce in December 1987, which
>> being regarded as a harbinger of more trouble ).
>> "Will a similar huge dispersal occur if the Dollar goes into another
>> tail-spin?or if stocks start heading south at the rate of 100 or
>> Dow points per day? Will more gold be dishoarded in an attempt to
>> it price below $500 per ounce?.or below $400 per ounce.
>> "Mr. Angell's response was that the Fed does not intervene in the
>> market, whether, spot, futures, forwards, or options. He was
>> on this point. However, he never did answer why 548,000 ounces of
>> were dishoarded. It seemed to me that either he was not aware of this
>> dishoarding, or if he was, he wasn't saying."
>> The author went on to describe how the transcripts of the Federal
>> Market Committee had had bits removed and apparently made illegible.
>> also throws light on the relationship between the Treasury and Fed,
>> concludes:
>> "I found the absence of the word gold particularly interesting since
>> gold price was rising to $500 per ounce, and the mention of gold in
>> August 18th meeting showed that the FOMC members were sensitive to
>> changes in price. In other words, the silence after October 1987 was
>> Midas writes: "By allowing price fixing shenanigans to occur and by
>> manipulating markets so that real problems are not faced squarely in
>> eye for all to see, some very important people and some very highly
>> regarded financial institutions, may be fostering UNFORESEEN
>> DISASTERS that will also suddenly appear on the radar screen from out
>> nowhere (as happened with the LTMC)."
>> Because of the enormity of their gold shorts, we believe that the big
>> players will face double troubles if, as the DOW crashes gold is
>> to find its rightful price at at least $350.
>> Boudewijn Wegerif
>> For GATA.
>> Here signing off as moderator of the GATA E-mail Group also, with the
>> usual GO GATA, Go Gold.