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Peter Brimelow: Investment newsletters value gold
By Claudia Carpenter
Bloomberg News Service
Monday, June 20, 2005
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=a8cFSKNc2ga0
NEW YORK -- Gold may rise for a fifth straight week, the longest
rally this year, on speculation European central banks will begin to
slow annual bullion sales just as investor demand is growing, a
Bloomberg survey showed.
Thirty-nine, or 78 percent, of 50 traders and investors surveyed
from Sydney to New York on June 16 and June 17 forecast a rise in
gold, which gained $10.70 to $440 an ounce last week in New York. It
was the most bullish consensus since the survey began April 2004.
Nine respondents forecast a decline and two expect little change.
European central banks, which agreed to limit gold sales to 500 tons
a year through September, shed 346 tons as of April 1, or about 13
tons a week, London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. estimates. If that
rate was maintained, central banks that accounted for most of a 23
percent rise in gold supply in the first quarter will reach their
sales target this week.
"They cannot keep selling at this rate," said Ian MacDonald,
managing director of precious metals trading in New York for
International Assets Holding Corp. "We should really be asking where
the gold is going to come from to meet growing investor demand."
Gold for August delivery rose 2.5 percent last week, surprising the
majority of analysts surveyed on June 9 and June 10, who predicted a
decline. Bloomberg's survey has correctly forecast the direction of
prices in 34 of 60 weeks, or 57 percent of the time.
"The central bank issue is an important one for the next six
months," said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors LLC, a
commodity consulting company in New Jersey. Even if the sales target
isn't met this week, the central banks "will be selling less in
coming weeks," he said.
Olivier Radelet, a spokesman for the European Central Bank in
Frankfurt, declined to comment.
Central banks are the biggest holders of gold, with 31,822 tons, or
1 billion ounces, in their vaults at the end of 2003, according to
the International Monetary Fund. Without restrictions, central bank
selling helped to send gold prices to a 20-year low of $253.20 in
July 1999.
In September that year, 15 central banks in Europe pledged to
restrict their sales and lending of bullion for five years. Last
year in September, the limit was raised to 500 tons from 400 tons.
Gold's rally has been part of renewed gains in commodities last week
including crude oil, which reached a record; copper, which jumped to
a 16-year high; and corn, which had its biggest weekly gain in 17
years.
The Reuters-CRB index of 17 commodities, which includes gold,
climbed every day last week, gaining 2.8 percent to 310.98 and
approaching the 24-year high of 323.33 reached on March 16. The
index, up 15 percent from a year ago, will expand to include
unleaded gasoline, aluminum and nickel, dropping platinum, starting
today.
Gold has climbed 5.3 percent in the past four weeks as investors
bought the precious metal as an alternative to currencies.
Gold last week touched 47,773 yen an ounce, the highest since
October 1991, and 358.131 euros, a record. In dollar terms, gold is
up 13 percent from a year ago, and reached a 16-year high of $458.70
on Dec. 2 as the dollar headed to a record low against the euro.
If the August futures contract in New York goes above $441.50 an
ounce, "look for prices to go up $20 in the next four to six weeks,"
said Carlos Perez-Santalla, president of Hudson River Futures in New
York. He changed his opinion from hold to sell for gold this week
after prices on June 17 surged to $441.30, the highest since March
17.
In the 12 months ending June 1, gold moved almost in lockstep with
the euro's performance against the dollar at a correlation
coefficient of 0.894. The maximum reading is 1. The coefficient
measures the degree to which the two variables move in unison.
Gold mostly stopped moving in the opposite direction of the dollar
three weeks ago, after voters in France and the Netherlands rejected
referendums for a European Union constitution. The vote has eroded
confidence in the euro and helped add about $30 to the price of
gold, Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York said in a June 14 report.
"The real bull market begins in gold when it rises against every
fiat currency," said Dennis Eich, a trader at Chicago- based
brokerage Peregrine Financial Group Inc.
Prices may touch $445 "in the near future," buoyed by higher oil
prices, said Prithviraj Kothari, director at Mumbai- based Riddhi
Siddhi Bullion Ltd. Rising energy costs may accelerate the pace of
inflation and slow the economy.
Crude oil, which reached a record $58.60 a barrel on June 17, is
expected to rise this week as producers face growing demand from
refiners, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.
Higher oil prices may reduce consumer spending and "seriously hurt
the U.S. economy, the dollar and be yet another catalyst to buy
gold," said John Licata, an independent analyst in New York.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-
long position in Comex gold futures in the week ended June 14,
according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered
short positions by 56,861 contracts, up from 39,107 a week earlier,
the government's Commitments of Traders Report on June 17 said. The
net-long position was the highest since May 10.
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RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS
Free sites:
http://www.cbs.marketwatch.com
http://www.usagold.com/amk/usagoldmarketupdate.html
http://www.capitalupdates.com/
http://www.silver-investor.com
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/
http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html
http://www.minersmanual.com/minernews.html
http://www.a1-guide-to-gold-investments.com/euro-vs-dollar.html
http://www.investmentrarities.com
http://www.kereport.com
(Korelin Business Report -- audio)
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/home.htm
(In Spanish)
http://www.plata.com.mx/plata/plata/english.htm
(In English)
http://www.resourceinvestor.com
http://www.goldpennystocks.com/
Subscription sites:
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
http://www.interventionalanalysis.com
http://www.investmentindicators.com/
Eagle Ranch discussion site:
http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm
Ted Butler silver commentary archive:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/
----------------------------------------------------
COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED
BY OUR MEMBERS
Blanchard & Co. Inc.
909 Poydras St., Suite 1900
New Orleans, Louisiana 70112
888-413-4653
http://www.blanchardonline.com
Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East First Ave., Suite 807
Denver, Colorado 80206
1-800-869-5115
http://www.USAGOLD.com
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
cpm@usagold.com
Colorado Gold
222 South 5th St.
Montrose, Colorado 81401
http://www.ColoradoGold.com
Don Stott, Proprietor
1-888-786-8822
Gold@gwe.net
El Dorado Discount Gold
Box 11296
Glendale, Arizona 85316
http://www.eldoradogold.net
Harvey Gordin, President
Office: 623-434-3322
Mobile: 602-228-8203
harvey@eldoradogold.net
Gold & Silver Investments Ltd.
Mespil House
37 Adelaide Rd
Dublin 2
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+353 1 2315260/6
Fax: +353 1 2315202
http://www.goldinvestments.org
info@gold.ie
Investment Rarities Inc.
7850 Metro Parkway
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http://www.gloomdoom.com
Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
gwestgaard@investmentrarities.com
Kitco
178 West Service Road
Champlain, N.Y. 12919
Toll Free:1-877-775-4826
Fax: 518-298-3457
and
620 Cathcart, Suite 900
Montreal, Quebec H3B 1M1
Canada
Toll-free:1-800-363-7053
Fax: 514-875-6484
http://www.kitco.com
Lee Certified Coins
P.O. Box 1045
454 Daniel Webster Highway
Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
http://www.certifiedcoins.com
Ed Lee, Proprietor
1-800-835-6000
leecoins@aol.com
Lone Star Silver Exchange
1702 S. Highway 121
Suite 607-111
Lewisville, Texas 75067
214-632-8869
http://www.discountsilverclub.com
Miles Franklin Ltd.
3015 Ottawa Ave. South
St. Louis Park, Minn. 55416
1-800-822-8080 / 952-929-1129
fax: 952-925-0143
http://www.milesfranklin.com
Contacts: David Schectman,
Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel
Missouri Coin Co.
11742 Manchester Road
St. Louis, MO 63131-4614
info@mocoin.com
314-965-9797
1-800-280-9797
http://www.mocoin.com
Resource Consultants Inc.
6139 South Rural Road
Suite 103
Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
Pat Gorman, Proprietor
1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
Metalguys@aol.com
Swiss America Trading Corp.
15018 North Tatum Blvd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85032
http://www.swissamerica.com
Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
1-800-BUY-COIN
FiGoldstein@swissamerica.com
The Moneychanger
Box 178
Westpoint, Tennessee 38486
http://www.the-moneychanger.com
Franklin Sanders
1-888-218-9226, 931-766-6066
----------------------------------------------------
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