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Jim Sinclair: Gold share bottom is in and gold will reach $480 in 103 days
By Veronica Brown
Reuters
May 4, 2004
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5037044
LONDON -- China's hunger for raw materials will drive
further demand for commodities such as metals despite
worries that the country's economy might overheat, a
panel of mining specialists said on Tuesday.
Metals prices fell sharply last week, with China seen
as the chief cause amid increasingly stringent measures
being implemented by Beijing to stop the economy
overcooking after it grew 9.1 percent last year.
But the panel said last week's losses were no cause for
panic, and rather proof that the country was in a
substantial economic cycle lasting more than 15 years.
"There are only a few sectors in China that are truly
overheated. ... There are very large sectors of the
economy that are not overheated at all," Ivanhoe Mines
Ltd. Chairman Robert Friedland told delegates at a
mining forum in London.
"It's very hyper, extremely bullish ... that the Chinese
prevent a bubble and there's absolutely no doubt that
they will be able to do so," he said.
Frank Holmes, chairman of fund manager U.S. Global
Investors, said talk of a bubble in China was premature.
"People are calling everything that goes through a
dramatic turning point a bubble," he said.
"There are so many different cycles to appreciate when
it comes to natural resources. China is going through a
huge cycle, while the U.S. is going through a four-year
presidential cycle," he said.
Holmes said China's rapid growth was driven by
large-scale industrial production, which marked a major
transformation.
"China is going through another transition. ...They are
doing everything to build up the rural community," he
said, referring to another factor in Cina's economic growth.
"We are in a great, wonderful secular bull market for all
commodities. ... It's going to be volatile," he added.
Jack Jones, executive director of international mining at
CIBC World Markets, a unit of Canadian Imperial Bank
of Commerce, said China had been highlighted as a major
concern but that some major mining groups were upbeat
on the overall demand picture.
"There clearly is potential for a structural as well as a
cyclical upswing for commodities," he said, adding that
sustained Chinese economic growth appeared key for
risk reduction.
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