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Dave Kranzler: QE has begun and the next upleg in gold is coming
By Dave Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
I find it quite amusing that the market believes inflation is tied to interest rates. The propagandists at the Fed did their job there: Distract while creating bank reserves (print money) out of plain sight.
The monetary base is up more than 7% since March. M2 is also a bit higher. This is why the rate of inflation has been slowly rising again since June. It's also why gold is up 7% and silver is up 2% since the end of June. (Silver is up 15.9% since early March.)
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The primary driver of my bull thesis is the shift in the Fed's monetary policy. It was only a matter of time before this occurred. The Fed informally "pivoted" away from hiking rates at the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The markets immediately began to price several rate cuts in 2024 into stock valuations and bond yields.
"Follow the money." While most observers are watching what the Fed does with interest rates, few have noticed that the Fed stopped shrinking the money supply in response to the regional bank crisis in March 2023. In fact, the M2 measure of the money supply has actually increased slightly since April 2023 (while everyone merely glares at the YoY %-change in M2 that circulates social media) . In addition, the Monetary Base, consisting of bank reserves and coin/currency in circulation, has increased over 7% since March 2023. This is the primary reason why the price of gold ran from $1,825 in March to $2,070 by year-end 2023. ...
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