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Alasdair Macleod: Central banks are always managing the crises they cause
By Alasdair Macleod
Head of Research, GoldMoney, Toronto
via Schiff Gold, White Plains, New York
Thursday, November 23, 2023
This article concludes that the current downturn in bond yields is part of a continuing market manipulation by central banks in order to restore confidence in the global economic outlook.
There is a long history of government intervention in markets. In the nineteenth century, it was by legal regulation, the most notable of which was the 1844 Bank Charter Act, which had to be suspended in 1847, 1857, and 1866.
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From the early 1920s the emphasis on intervention changed under Benjamin Strong, the first Fed chairman, who started to deliberately expand central bank credit to stimulate the economy. Coupled with the expansion phase of the commercial bank credit cycle, this led to the Roaring '20s, the stock market boom, and its collapse.
Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt compounded the errors with economic interventions that only succeeded in prolonging the 1930s depression. It was the start of modern government economic and monetary manipulation, which took on a new urgency under the fiat dollar in the 1970s.
While they create problems by their interventions, governments have perfected the art of managing markets to restore failing confidence in credit values. This was dramatically proved in the wake of the Lehman failure.
But if government intervention is behind the current decline in bond yields and interest rate expectations, it is only a temporary solution to G-7 government debt traps, the squeeze on bank credit, and a deteriorating economic outlook. These are problems deferred, not resolved. ...
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