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Alasdair Macleod: Beware the great unwind
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, August 10, 2023
The chart published with this essay strongly suggests that U.S. Treasury bond yields, widely regarded as the risk-free yardstick against which all other credit is measured, are going significantly higher, not stabilising close to current levels before going lower as commonly believed.
I conclude that U.S. Treasury bond yields could easily double, and the political class will be powerless to stop them going even higher. The implications for interest rates globally are that they will be forced considerably higher as well.
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This article concludes that reasoned analysis takes us to this inevitable conclusion. It is consistent with the end of the post-Bretton Woods fiat currency era, and the return to credit backed by real values.
The collapse of unbacked credit's value was only a matter of time, which is now rapidly approaching. The Great Unwind is under way. It is the consequence of monetary and currency distortions that have accumulated since the end of Bretton Woods 52 years ago. It will not be a trivial matter.
The trigger will be capital flows leaving the dollar, creating a funding crisis for the U.S. government. Foreigners, who have accumulated $32 trillion in deposits and other dollar-denominated financial assets, will no longer need to maintain dollar balances to the same extent, perhaps even paring them back to a minimum.
Furthermore, economic factors are turning sharply negative with energy prices rising ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter, springing debt traps on Western alliance governments.
So how could bond yields possibly decline materially in the coming months? ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/beware-the-great-unwind?gmrefcode=gata
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