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Alasdair Macleod: Inflation will return
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, July 27, 2023
It is an error to expect inflation to continue to fall in America. All financial market values in the United States and elsewhere are predicated on this hope.
The misunderstanding is to assume that the widely expected recession will lead to further falls in consumer price inflation, and that therefore interest rates and bond yields will decline. These hopes are based on Keynes' rejection of Say's Law, which simply points out there is no such thing as Keynes' general glut because the unemployed stop producing.
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A further point is that banks are increasingly scared of lending risk, which is leading to a credit squeeze. This raises the question: How can interest rates fall when there is a worsening shortage of credit?
The current economic setup for the U.S., the Eurozone, and the U.K. seems set to increase central bank credit to replace commercial bank lending, which will undermine their currencies. Additionally, government funding requirements will increase materially at a time when cross-border investment flows are threatened by financial bear markets.
The timing of a new BRICS gold-backed settlement currency and China's determination to consolidate the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s sphere of influence have the potential to offer alternatives for capital flows escaping from the collapsing finances of the Western alliance led by America.
Above all, we are witnessing the death of fiat, because it is increasingly difficult to see how the current currency regime based on the dollar will survive. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/inflation-will-return-july-2023?gmrefcode=gata
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