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U.S. money supply falling at fastest rate since 1930s
By Jamie McGeever
Thursday, March 30, 2023
U.S. money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s, a red flag for the economy and financial markets.
Money supply has now been shrinking year-on-year since December, an unprecedented development in modern times that should make investors sit up and take notice -- growth, asset prices and inflation could all weaken.
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It is largely a consequence of the reversal of the liquidity generated by massive post-pandemic fiscal and monetary stimulus, the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet via quantitative tightening, falling bank deposits, and weak demand for and provision of credit.
All else equal, it is a sign the Fed has no need to raise interest rates further. Given the lag of one to two years between money supply changes and the impact on asset prices and inflation, it may even be a sign that the U.S. central bank should be cutting rates. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
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