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Alasdair Macleod: Money and recession
By Alasdair Macleod
Thursday, February 9, 2023
How reliable is the link between money supply growth and the economic outlook?
Monetarists are warning now that money supply has stopped growing and even turned negative, so we are heading for a recession. This article examines the position for U.S. dollar M2 money supply and the prospects for the U.S. economy.
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Monday, February 6, 2023
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But monetary growth, or the lack of it, doesn't only affect GDP but a large element of economic activity that is not included in it, principally financial activities, and the acquisition of assets such as property.
This raises the question: Is the downturn in money supply due to financial activities, or the non-financial economy? What is its actual relevance?
In this article I delve into the relationship between credit and the economy. I examine the process of credit contraction. I conclude that rather than relying solely on the monetarists' favourite indicator, an understanding of the credit cycle and loan officer surveys are more valuable evidence. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
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