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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China's coal revival may soon slash our energy bills but at wicked cost
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Friday, March 25, 2022
It would be a grim irony if the Chinese Communist Party rescues Europe from an energy shock this year by shovelling wagons of coal from the mines of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, trashing the planet in the process.
Citigroup thinks this is exactly what may now happen. Surging coal use in China will displace imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) used in power plants, freeing up hydrocarbons for the rest of the world.
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China became the world's biggest importer of seaborne gas last year: a key reason why gas prices were spiralling upwards even before the Kremlin began to manipulate supply. What it now does determines our fate in Europe.
Citigroup is telling clients that global gas prices could fall as fast as they rose, plummeting over the second half of this year as diverted LNG floods the world market. It has pencilled in European gas prices of $10 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit or lower by the summer, down from a peak of $110 at the height of the winter crisis.
"China could be turning itself from a voracious energy importer to possibly the only country with spare coal and natural gas production capacity to help normalise the global markets," said Anthony Yuen, the bank's commodity strategist. ...
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