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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Putin's energy shock is broadening into a world food crisis
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Friday, March 4, 2022
The world was facing a grain supply crunch even before Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
The United Nations food price index was already higher in real terms than at the height of the global hunger crisis a decade ago, when Tunisian bread protests set off the Arab Spring.
The tight global market for grains, vegetable oil, and fertilisers was probably one of the many reasons that Putin chose this moment to strike, calculating -- wrongly it may prove -- that the West would not dare to squeeze him too hard.
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The world faces what amounts to a commodity "black swan" across the gamut of primary resources. Oil, gas, coal, and the "ags" are all spiraling higher together, with metals catching up fast. It is a systemic stagflation shock, an intractable problem for central bankers. It acts like a war reparations tax on the economies of importing nations and is ultimately contractionary.
Natasha Kaneva from JPMorgan said inventories of tradable commodities are critically low and the world is running out of safety buffers. This is a recipe for "nonlinear price increases," she said.
Unlike the West, China is prepared. It has been stocking up for months and currently holds 84% of the world's copper reserve, 70% of its corn, and 51% of its wheat. ...
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