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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Russia may be forced to dump its gold to raise funds
The West Has Finally Taken the Gloves Off Against Putin, and Redeemed Our Honour
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Sunday, February 27, 2022
On the third attempt, the West is at last grasping the nettle in Ukraine.
This weekend's draconian measures come too late to deter Vladimir Putin, but not too late to inflict real pain and perhaps to set in motion the destruction of his regime.
... Dispatch continues below ...
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The market verdict on earlier, minimalist, lowest-denominator attempts to sanction Russia was almost embarrassing. Moscow's MOEX equity index rocketed 20pc on Friday, with relief rallies for Russian bonds and the rouble. Oil prices settled down.
It was a collective judgment by hard-nosed traders that the West was not willing to go beyond symbolic gestures, and that business would carry on as usual even if a sovereign democratic Ukraine were wiped off the map.
Saturday evening was the moment that the Western democracies took a deep breath and began to use their crushing economic and financial power, all too aware of the coming blowback through a commodity shock and multiple channels of financial contagion.
The joint decision by the US, UK, the EU, and Canada to sanction Russia's central bank will prevent Vladimir Putin from deploying a large part of his $635 billion fighting fund of foreign exchange reserves.
It is believed that two-thirds are located at the New York Fed, or in London, Frankfurt, and other Western jurisdictions. The reserves can be frozen.
Putin still has gold under his control, so brace for a crash in bullion prices as he dumps 400-ounce Soviet bars on the Dubai market, all the way down to final tsarist bars with the imperial eagle.
If these estimates are correct -- and it may not be as simple as that -- Putin will no longer have the means to stabilise the rouble, or to help Russian companies cover some $330 billion of external debt as repayment comes due.
This is how hyperinflation begins. A vicious circle sets in where devaluation turns manageable foreign liabilities into systemic insolvencies. ...
... For the remainder of the commentary:
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