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Alasdair Macleod: How Ukraine fits into the global jigsaw
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Ukraine is part of a far bigger geopolitical picture.
Russia and China want U.S. hegemonic influence in the Eurasian continent marginalized. Following defeats for U.S. foreign policy in Syria and Afghanistan and following Brexit, Russian President Vladimir Putin is driving a wedge between America and the non-Anglo-Saxon European Union.
Due to global monetary expansion, rising energy prices are benefiting Russia, which can afford to squeeze Germany and other EU states dependent on Russian natural gas. The squeeze will stop only when America backs off.
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Being keenly aware that its dominant role in NATO is under threat, America has been trying to escalate the Ukraine crisis to suck Russia into an untenable occupation. Putin won’t fall for it.
The danger for us all is not a boots-on-the-ground war -- that’s likely to involve only the pre-emptive attacks on military installations Putin initiated last night — but a financial war for which Russia is fully prepared.
Both sides probably do not know how fragile the eurozone banking system is, with both the European Central Bank and its national central bank shareholders already having liabilities greater than their assets. In other words, rising interest rates have broken the euro system, and an economic and financial catastrophe on its eastern flank will probably trigger its collapse.
The developing tension over Ukraine is part of a bigger picture -- a struggle between America and the two Eurasian hegemons, Russia and China. The prize is ultimate control over Mackinder’s World Island.
Halford Mackinder is acknowledged as the founder of geopolitics: the study of factors such as geography, geology, economics, demography, politics, and foreign policy and their interaction. His original paper was entitled “The Geographical Pivot of History,” presented at the Royal Geographical Society in 1905, in which he first formulated his Heartland Theory, which extended geopolitical analysis to encompass the entire globe.
In this and a subsequent paper ("Democratic Ideals and Reality: A Study in the Politics of Reconstruction," 1919) he built on his Heartland Theory, from which his famous quote has been passed down to us: "Who rules East Europe commands the World Island" -- Eurasia. "Who rules the World Island rules the world."
Josef Stalin was said to have been interested in this theory, and while it is not generally admitted, the leaders and administrations of Russia, China, and America are almost certainly aware of Mackinder’s theory and its implications. ...
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