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Alasdair Macleod: The euro's death wish

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, Toronto
Thursday, November 25, 2021

Last week's Goldmoney article explained the Fed's increasing commitment to dollar hyperinflation. This week's article examines the additional issues facing the euro and the Eurozone.

More nakedly than is evidenced by other major central banks, the European Central Bank, through its system of satellite national central banks, is now almost solely committed to financing national government debts and smothering over the consequences. The result is a commercial banking system both highly leveraged and burdened with overvalued government debt secured only by an implied ECB guarantee.

... Dispatch continues below ...


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The failings of this statist control system have been covered up by a pass-the-parcel, any-collateral-goes, E10-trillion-plus repo market, which with the TARGET2 settlement system has concealed the progressive accumulation of private-sector bad debts ever since the first Eurozone crisis hit Spain in 2012.

These distortions can continue only as long as interest rates are suppressed beneath the zero-bound. But rising interest rates globally are now a certainty -- only officially unrecognised by central bankers -- so there can only be two major consequences. 

First, the inevitable Eurozone economic recession (now being given an extra push through renewed Covid restrictions) will send debt-burdened government deficits, already high, soaring, requiring an accelerated pace of inflationary financing by the ECB. 

And second, the collapse of the bloated repo market, which is to be avoided at all costs, will almost certainly be triggered.

This article attempts to clarify these issues. It is hardly surprising that raising interest rates is not an option for the ECB. Therefore, the recent weakness of the euro on the foreign exchanges marks only the start of a threat to the euro system, the outcome of which will be decided by the markets, not the ECB. ...

... For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-euro-s-death-wish?gmrefcode=gata

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