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Mystery of China's huge dollar surplus baffles markets
By Enda Curran
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 4, 2021
Unprecedented trade surpluses and record inflows into its bond market are giving China a stockpile of dollars unseen since the days when the "Asian savings glut" was blamed for keeping U.S. interest rates excessively low and fueling the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
But unlike then, when China aggressively recycled its dollar holdings into U.S. Treasuries, China's giant pile of foreign exchange reserves are holding broadly stable. That means the dollars are being funneled somewhere else, but exactly where is proving to be a bit of a mystery.
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While some of that flood of greenbacks is ending up as deposits at Chinese banks, the large "errors and omissions" in the nation's balance of payments is muddying the picture. What is clear is that the dollars offer China an important cushion against any future shocks in the world economy, even as individual companies like China Evergrande Group struggle to repay their debts.
"It is exceedingly difficult to get a clear view of how China's current account surplus is recycled," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong. Nonetheless, the dollars mean that "whatever China's economic challenges ahead, there is little danger of either a balance-of-payments or a foreign-debt problem." ...
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