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Alasdair Macleod: Suffering a sea change
By Alasdair Macleod
GoldMoney, St. Helier, Jersey, Channel Islands
Thursday, May 27, 2021
There is an established theoretical relationship between bonds and equities tha provides a framework for the future performance of financial assets. It would be a mistake to ignore it, ahead of the forthcoming rise in global interest rates.
Price inflation is roaring, and so far central banks are in denial. But it is increasingly difficult to see how monetary policy planners can extend the suppression of interest rates much longer. There can be only one outcome.
Markets -- that is to say prices determined by non-state actors -- will force central banks to capitulate on interest rates in the summer.
... Dispatch continues below ...
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Hardly noticed, China is deliberately putting the brakes on its economy, which will cause an inflationary dollar to collapse, unless the U.S. defends it by putting up interest rates.
Deliberate?
Almost certainly, as part of its strategy, China is taking the financial war with the U.S. into the foreign exchanges. Bond yields will rise, with the U.S. Treasury 10-year bond leaving a 2% yield far behind.
Equity markets will sense the danger, and it might turn out that the month of May marks a peak in financial asset values -- following cryptocurrencies into substantial bear markets. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/suffering-a-sea-change?gmrefcode=gata
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