Another gold market analyst accepts GATA''s work

Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2003-02-16 03:00 Section: Daily Dispatches

Technical Review
Gold, U.S. dollar, and Canadian dollar
Plus: Those to whom I turn!

By Jim Sinclair
Friday, February 14, 2003
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Schultz, Guild, and Adams are, in my mind,
the most capable people in the world in terms
of understanding the markets we live in now
and for many years to come. I promised to
serve this community. I know no way better
than to reveal to you the identity of all the
men I depend on.

You know Harry Schultz, of whom I speak of
often.

I have also told you about Kenny Adams.
Though he does not take clients for
management, he is a master technician with
whom I have talked with almost every day for
more than 30 years.

Now meet Monty Guild, the finest money
manager I have ever known.He is the only
person I trust to manage my own money or my
family's in areas where I feel his expertise
exceeds mine (for example, special-situation
equities). He is not at all limited to that
as he is also a master in currency and
metals.

I say this not simply because of his unbroken
record of profitability over the past 20
years but more so because I know his superb
ethics. We go back a long way.

When Harry Schultz, the dean of gold,
sponsored the first monetary conference, it
was Monty Guild who presented a paper on quot;The
Impact of Inflation on Portfolio Management
in the 1970s.quot; This conference was held at
Princeton University in April 1974.

I have no financial relationship in Monty's
professional activities, nor in those of any
of the men I hold in the highest esteem, but
rather the deepest personal and professional
respect for them. In fact, this association
of mutual respect between Schultz, Guild,
Adams, and Sinclair represents the pioneers
of general investment in monetary items. We
have always looked to international monetary
aggregates and their effect on currency
values as the basis for investment positions.
When the investment business was completely
provincial, we brought to the public the
ability and facility to invest in anything
anywhere.

I established the first 24-hour brokerage
facility in the United States that tended to
the needs of a general clientele without
serving only the ultra-rich. As I reflect on
the three men I consider world-class experts
in their fields, I see what binds us as
brothers: their dedication to personal ethics
above all else. This is what makes these
three diverse people and personalities one
giant force in the markets.

Guild and I recently discussed gold, the U.S.
dollar, the Canadian dollar, the euro, the
Norwegian kroner, the U.S. Exchange
Stabilization Fund, and Treasury Secretary
Snow.

Guild likes the pure gold shares and took
positions in them recently. He sees good
support for gold between $348 and $352. He
also likes the Norwegian kroner and would
love to have an opportunity to add to his
euro position at 1.06. (Me too on the euro!)
Monty and I look at the Canadian dollar in
terms of its commodity value export potential
and as a reflection of the nearest peso, the
U.S. dollar. We agree that, most
conservatively, the dollar has another full
33 1/3 which is 10 cents on the downside, if
only to offset the approaching 6 percent of
GDP/U.S. current account deficit. We both
noticed that Secretary Snow is a much better
speaker than his predecessor and that you can
count on the Exchange Stabilization Fund
doing its thing whenever Secretary Snow,
Chairman Greenspan, or President Bush speak.
It is a clockwork item you can even short-
term trade on.

You all know where to find Harry Schultz:
www.HSLetter.com. I am easy to find. Kenny
Adams, who could have been a model for
Remington Old West brass sculptures, is not
easy to find but I will forward anything for
him that is sent to me. The only place to
find Kenny is in the deserts of Nevada,
except when he is flying his ultra-light
around and scaring the dickens out of turkey
vultures. Those birds never saw anyone that
looks like the quot;Sundance Kidquot; with wings.

Monty Guild can be found at
guild@guildinvestment.com. He is a normal,
busy resident of Malibu, Calif., so whenever
it is raining, don't call him, because he is
trying to keep his house from sliding down
the hill. And don't call him when it isn't
raining, because he is watering his house
with a garden hose to keep it from burning
down. Don't call him when it is in-between,
because he is a long-time meditator and
probably will not hear the telephone ring.
Don't call him between 7 p.m., because he is
watching the nightly car crash by the L.A.
police on the evening news. Better just e-
mail him.

Gold: Who said it was easy? Not me. I would
prefer to see gold hold at the lows of this
week's action but do not deny that strong
support starts to build from the high $340s
to tonight's close. The pure gold shares
acted quite well. If Harry graces us, I will
post the Schultz Index for your review on
Monday. U.S. markets will be closed but the
rest of the world is working and so am I.
Well, I work every day, so weekends mean
nothing to me.

The U.S. dollar: Chopping, thanks to the ESF
and the war/no war market. What the pundits
have not yet realized is that we are right
back in the good old nuclear-era Cold War.
Maybe deficits and cold wars go together? The
real problem is not Iraq but North Korea,
backed by China and Russia. Sound familiar?
North Korea is a dangerous situation being
dismissed as if its conduct is only a
negotiating stance. You pump up a nut as
China and Russia are doing and that tactic
could easily backfire.

France made trouble in every situation back
in the Cold War days. Seventeen suitcase-
sized, low-yield nuclear devices are missing
from the Russian arsenal. Some Russian
general sold those 17 backpack nukes to
someone. Have you obtained a copy of quot;One
Point Safequot; from a used book web site yet?
This book was written by respected
journalists and hit the New York Times best-
seller list but no second printing ever took
place.

So do you really think a dollar bull market
is possible? Do you want to buy a nice bridge
in lower Manhattan? Or maybe I could sell you
a no-margin-call gold derivative to hedge
your positions? Here is the rule one more
time: quot;No dollar bull market, and therefore
no gold bear market.quot;

The Canadian dollar: If that neckline, which
is broken, is confirmed by the clear break of
the downtrend (it is broken!) by another good
old rule, 3 percent, then it will be
canonized by the currency traders. As
quot;looneyquot; as it sounds, this currency could
try for one-to-one to the dollar, judging by
past moves. It needs to prove itself but,
hey, it is worth watching.

I will call your attention to potential other
items from time to time. The platinum trade
was a fast $100 profit while we were waiting
for an opportunity in gold. Not too shabby
for a sideshow!

Please check out the following links for the
charts that accompany this commentary:

a href=http://www.jsmineset.com/i/misc/chart-feb142003-a.jpghttp://www.jsminese...

a href=http://www.jsmineset.com/i/misc/chart-feb142003-b.jpghttp://www.jsminese...

a href=http://www.jsmineset.com/i/misc/chart-feb142003-c.jpghttp://www.jsminese...

a href=http://www.jsmineset.com/i/misc/chart-feb142003-d.jpghttp://www.jsminese...

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