By James G. Rickards
Daily Reckoning, Baltimore
Thursday, September 25, 2025
Is China a rising power or a falling star? The answer is both. The most important geopolitical question in the world today is, which one of those trends will dominate? Will China rise to true great power status with a developed economy, high-value added manufacturing and military parity with the U.S.? Or will China collapse into political chaos as it has many times in the long history of its civilization? One or the other outcome is likely, but which outcome is uncertain. The makeup of the world geopolitical order hangs in the balance.
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The United States and Russia are established superpowers. That will not change soon. China is properly counted alongside the U.S. and Russia as a great power, but its weaknesses put it in a slightly lower rank. Russia has 5,549 nuclear warheads. The U.S. has 5,277. China has 600 nuclear warheads although that number is growing.
Of course, it would only take perhaps 50 or fewer nuclear detonations to destroy life on earth. The significance of a large nuclear arsenal distributed among ICMBs, IRBMs, bombers, submarines, cruisers and mobile launchers is to withstand a first strike by an opponent and be able to launch a second strike. That’s the essence of deterrence, which has kept the nuclear peace since 1945.
Russia and the U.S. have deterrence capability. China does not. A smaller nuclear arsenal can actually be destabilizing because the temptation for a weaker power to launch a first strike is greater. China is in that position today. ...
... For the remainder of the analysis:
https://dailyreckoning.com/china-rising-power-or-falling-star/ [3]
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