Paul advances from asterisk to spoiler. Next, the nominee -- then president!

Paul Shaping Up as Spoiler in GOP Race

By David Espo
Associated Press
via Yahoo News
Thursday, December 20, 2007

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071220/ap_on_el_pr/anti_war_asterisk

CONCORD, New Hampshire -- It wasn't long ago that Rep. Ron Paul was an anti-war asterisk in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Then his campaign raised a record $6 million in a single day.

Now the libertarian-leaning Texas congressman is looking like a possible spoiler, with an eclectic, tech-savvy following and an astounding $18 million in donations raised in less than three months.

"It's sort of gotten out of control. I don't know what to do about it," he told one audience recently in mock frustration.

At the current rate, it is some of his better known rivals who might have cause for concern. Polls give no indication that Paul can win any primaries or caucuses. But his appeal to independents, in particular, could make a difference in contests in New Hampshire, which votes on Jan. 8, or in Michigan, where a primary is scheduled one week later.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona, for one, hopes to appeal to independents in those states, both of which he won when he first sought the White House eight years ago. Paul's literature says he never voted to raise taxes, a point that could get him a look from backers of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Other contenders who have been losing ground slowly in statewide New Hampshire surveys -- former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani or former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, for example -- would be hard-pressed to explain it if they wind up trailing a man who says the United States needs a more humble foreign policy in an age of terrorism.

The attention is going to an 72-year-old physician who pursued an interest in free-market economics and a career in politics.

Addressing a breakfast audience recently, he was as scathing in his denunciation of President Bush's stewardship of international relations as he was of Bush's economic policy.

"I want the foreign policy of our Founding Fathers. No entangling relationships," he said. That means trade with Cuba, ending penalties against Iran, and -- above all -- getting U.S. troops out of Iraq.

"All this death and destruction. We blow up their bridges; we're taxed for that. Then we're taxed to rebuild their bridges and our own bridges are falling down," he said, drawing a connection between the war and unmet needs in this country.

Paul's vision of the nation's economic future is not pretty. "When empires go too far their currencies are ruined because all wars are fought through inflation," he said. "That means the trillion-dollar operation that we have [overseas] is coming to an end. I want to bring it to an end gracefully, not wait for a dollar collapse."

While Paul says his critics sometimes accuse him of being a good candidate for the 19th century, his campaign appears to be aided to an unusual degree by the energy and enthusiasm of supporters skilled at using the Internet to their advantage.

He is the only candidate whose name is emblazoned on a blimp. It was last reported over Maryland en route to New Hampshire, and has its own Web site, which in turn contains a daily tracker, flight plan, live video feed, and blimp blog:

http://www.ronpaulblimp.com/

Because the effort says it is independent of the campaign, donations to keep the blimp aloft are not limited by federal election law. But the publicity it produces draws attention to Paul.

The campaign is employing more traditional tactics, as well.

Fergus Cullen, the New Hampshire Republican party chairman who is neutral in the race, said Paul's campaign has sent more campaign mail to households than any other organization has. Radio advertising is heavy, although paid television advertising has been relatively modest so far.

Current polls in New Hampshire show Paul in single digits. But, Cullen said, "I believe there is more support than public opinion polls are picking up. I believe that he is appealing to anti-establishment Republicans and independents, and there are a lot of them."

Independents account for about 42 percent of the electorate in the state, and outnumber both Republicans and Democrats.

Cullen predicted that the Texan would poll more than 10 percent -- a significant threshold because it would guarantee him at least one delegate to the Republican nominating convention next summer.

Cullen said he doubts that Paul will hurt any candidate more than another. "I believe most of Ron Paul's supporters would probably not participate in the primary" without him in the race, he said.

Officials in other campaigns are not so sure.

Paul's campaign has been active in Iowa too, although his relative lack of an organization in that state makes it harder to have an impact in the caucuses on Jan. 3 that mark the campaign's first test.

In recent days the campaign has purchased 30-minute blocks of time for Sunday for a statewide appeal. Campaign mail has begun in Michigan, whose primary is Jan. 15.

Paul was noncommittal when asked how he intended to spend his surprisingly large treasury, answering only that he was getting ready to compete in primaries in 20 states on Feb. 5.

Beyond the campaign's official moves, a second independent effort involves supporters sending letters to independent voters in Iowa as well as elsewhere. A Web site devoted to the effort claims more than 500,000 letters sent to potential Iowa caucus-goers alone.

E-mails sent to two organizers drew no immediate response.

Jesse Benton, a campaign spokesman, said the blimp and the letter-writing campaign were examples of spontaneous support. "We couldn't control it if we wanted to, and we don't want to control it," he said.

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