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Bolivia''s VP quoted as giving assurance against nationalization of mining
By Mark Stevenson
Associated Press
Wednesday, May 3, 2006
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060503/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/mexico_election
s
The leftist former front-runner in Mexico's presidential race is
watching his advantage crumble to the conservative ruling-party
candidate, raising doubts that Mexico will be the latest Latin
America nation to veer to the left.
Two months before the election, a series of polls shows a steady
decline for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. The former Mexico City
mayor is idolized by many poor Mexicans and feared by many of the
rich, who worry he would set Mexico on the anti-free market path of
Venezuela and Bolivia.
Poll after recent poll has shown Lopez Obrador's lead declining or
disappearing. One published Wednesday by the newspaper Reforma
showed him trailing ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon 40
percent to 33 percent -- the first time a major poll has shown
somebody with a statistically significant lead over Lopez Obrador.
Roberto Madrazo, of the former ruling Institutional Revolutionary
Party, or PRI, was third, with 22 percent. The poll had a margin of
error of 2.3 percentage points.
In March, Lopez Obrador led Calderon 41 to 31 percent.
The former Mexico City mayor is blaming the media and pollsters for
the slide.
But many analysts say Lopez Obrador's worst enemy is his
confrontational, stubborn nature -- which may have led him to skip a
nationally televised April 25 debate, which the other candidates
attended.
Lopez Obrador's justification for missing the debate was that he
didn't want to interrupt a whistle-stop campaign, where he is often
greeted like a conquering hero and draped with flower garlands.
"I don't know if it's his personality, or what," said Carlos Cruz, a
23-year university student eating a sandwich at a downtown stand
Wednesday. "But he's not very humble. He seems arrogant,
domineering."
Cruz looks like a logical Lopez Obrador supporter, wearing a
ponytail, black T-shirt, and jeans. But he doesn't think the leftist
is going to win.
"It's not so much Calderon's gain in the polls, as it was his (Lopez
Obrador's) absence at the debate," he said.
The day after the debate, Lopez Obrador reacted sardonically to a
poll showing him falling slightly behind Calderon, who represents
President Vicente Fox's National Action Party.
"Ha, ha, ha, ha. I'd like to see someone who actually believes their
polls," Lopez Obrador told supporters.
While the news has gotten worse, Lopez Obrador's response has
remained as defiant, even angry, as ever.
"Their media campaign and their publishing rigged polls is not going
to work," he told supporters Tuesday. "I am sure we're heading for
victory."
National Action has spent heavily on advertisements depicting Lopez
Obrador as a radical and "a danger to Mexico." Lopez Obrador has
seemingly played into that, publicly telling Fox to "shut up," and
referring to the president and other critics as "chachalacas,"
notoriously noisy birds.
Lopez Obrador has "been digging his grave with his tongue," said
George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary.
"He's getting very testy, because a messiah is supposed to be adored
by the people," Grayson said. "He can't reconcile the fact that he's
the redeemer for the Mexican masses with the fact that he's either
running neck-and-neck or behind."
Lopez Obrador still has a core of dedicated, almost adoring
followers.
"They can say whatever they want, they're not going to change my
mind. I like him. I'm voting for Lopez Obrador," said Maria Felix
Osorio, 36, an employee at a Mexico City clothing store.
The leftist could rebound in the polls in the second debate,
scheduled for June 6, which he has promised to attend.
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