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Goldman Sachs note hints China's gold accumulation may be far more than official numbers
By Eamonn Sheridan
Investing Live, Limassol, Cyprus
Monday, July 20, 2026
China's true pace of gold accumulation is running far ahead of what official figures suggest, according to new estimates from Goldman Sachs. The bank calculates that China acquired more than 48 tonnes of gold in May through the London over-the-counter market, the largest monthly purchase in over a year and nearly five times the 10 tonnes officially reported by the People's Bank of China for that month.
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The gap between estimated and reported purchases extends to the year as a whole. China's central bank has officially raised its gold reserves by 40 tonnes so far in 2026, including a 15-tonne addition in June that marked its largest monthly purchase in at least 2 1/2 years and its 20th consecutive month of reserve growth.
Applying a more conservative 2.0 times multiplier to that year-to-date figure, rather than the roughly 4.8 times ratio implied by the May data, still suggests China may have accumulated closer to 80 tonnes of gold in total this year.
Goldman Sachs said the broader picture, captured in its central bank gold nowcast, shows purchases running at 81 tonnes in May and 67 tonnes per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a pre-2022 average of just 17 tonnes a month. The bank attributed much of the recent re-acceleration to China and said the trend is likely to provide a price floor for gold even as the metal faces near-term pressure from hawkish Federal Reserve rate expectations. ...
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