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Stephen Innes: Gold is not rallying but replacing faith in fiat
By Stephen Innes
FXStreet.com, Barcelona, Spain
Thursday, January 29, 2026
After blowing through $5,500 in early Asia, bullion is no longer trading like a commodity. It is trading like a referendum. Not on inflation. Not on rates. On trust.
Gold is not yet pressing north of $6,000. What is pressing higher is the narrative ceiling. When prices clear $5500 this decisively, the next leg is no longer spot-driven but expectation-driven. This is the phase in which forecasts begin to chase price rather than guide it.
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You should expect a flurry of revised calls above $6000 and even $6500 as desks are forced to admit they under-modelled a trade that refused to wait for permission.
This move is not about growth, CPI prints, or whether the Fed trims or holds. Gold is responding to something more structural and more uncomfortable. The slow realization that the anchors of the system are lighter than advertised.
Gold is the inverse of confidence. When belief in policy coherence weakens, gold ceases to behave like a hedge and instead acts as an alternative. That is what we are watching now. This is not fear of recession. There is doubt about fiat stewardship. ...
... For the remainder of the commentary:
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-is-not-rallying-it-is-replacing-faith-202601290157
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