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Stefan Gleason: How precious metals generate positive real returns

Section: Daily Dispatches

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Monday, February 8, 2021

One of the most bullish backdrops for precious metals is an environment of negative real interest rates – that is, when bonds and cash yield less than the inflation rate.

With inflationary pressures picking up and the Federal Reserve showing no signs of lifting its benchmark rate anytime soon, real short-term rates could fall even further into negative territory in the months ahead.

... Dispatch continues below ...


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Company Announcement
Monday, February 8, 2021

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Long-term yields, however, have been moving slightly higher in nominal terms.

Higher bond yields have helped lift the U.S. Dollar Index and restrain gold and silver prices so far in 2021.

The 30-year yield rose to nearly 2% on Friday. While still quite low historically, a breakout above 2% could be psychologically important for markets.

The Fed has long spouted a 2% inflation target. It now aims to engineer a slight overshoot for an indefinite period. (And don't forget that the government-reported inflation rate underreports true inflation. A 2% rate generally means we have 4% or higher inflation in the real economy.)

But if bond yields overshoot inflation, that would defeat the central bank's purpose. One of the Fed's goals is to help the U.S. government and other large debtors steadily chip away at their real obligations. ...

... For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2021/02/08/return-potential-of-precious...

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